Today's forecast is the first update to PME Politics predictions since May 2nd. It includes the ICM poll released this afternoon, which gave the Conservatives a record (for ICM) lead of 22 points.
has happened since the last forecast, including last week's Local
Election results (a resounding Conservative win) and Dianne Abbott's ill
fated LBC interview.
Since then, the Conservatives
have since apparently reestablished much of a polling lead which
appeared to have been cut somewhat over the week previous by the Labour
The rolling 7 day average of polls applied to
the uniform swing model today produced the following result:
Conservatives 403, Labour 165, Lib Dems 6, UKIP 0, SNP 54, Plaid 3, and
Applying the contextual and political
variables to condition the swing according to various parameters in each
seat using the 'Polls Plus' model resulted in a final projection of:
projection has the Conservatives significantly up on the last forecast
produced, with Labour someway down and both the SNP and Plaid also
down a seat each. The Lib Dems are fairly stable, but seemed to have
made some ground in recent polling which may see their forecasted seats
rise, if it is sustained into later this week.
The current model forecast moves the Lab/Con marginal line
further down the Labour path, putting the Tory Tanks right outside the
outskirts of both Manchester (Worsley and Eccles South) and Sheffield
(Penistone and Stocksbridge), having already blitzed through the previously safe Labour territories in the South of Bristol and Luton.
how might the Conservatives really deliver a result which sees them
push towards 400 seats, only a few years after many questioned their
ability to even build a majority again after the Thatcher and Major
The general pattern of last week's local
election contest was of the Conservatives hoovering up UKIP votes in
order to bypass the other parties and fly into 1st spot in over 500
council seats across the country. There is every reason to suspect that
this may well happen again in next month's General Election, as former
UKIP voters continue to abandon their previous party in support of
Theresa May and her "Brexit means Brexit" agenda.
number of Labour held seats in which the total Conservative plus UKIP
vote share is greater than the Labour Party vote share is well over 150
(credit to Steve Fisher over at electionsetc.com
for that one). If the Conservatives are once again successful in
mopping up UKIP support, then the sky really may be the limit for the
size of their landslide.