Thursday, 8 June 2017

Final PME Politics #GE2017 Forecast - Conservative Overall Majority of 46 (348 Total Seats)

As of this morning, updated polling both nationally and regionally has been included into the model to produce the final PME Politics forecast.

The 'polls plus' model projects a result of:

Conservatives: 348
Labour: 224
Lib Dems: 10
UKIP: 0
Greens: 1
SNP: 46
Plaid: 3

This is based on an estimated swing of around +9 for the Conservatives on their 2015 results. The Butler swing at the aggregate level would therefore be -1 (a swing towards Labour).

Accounting for forecasting errors, the model is projecting a Conservative majority of somewhere between 60 and 30 seats, with the central projection being about 45.

After the results come in, I will run a full disgnostic on the model and write a piece discussing its accuracy, what worked well and what didn't, and what the next PME Politics forecast might look like.

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